Israel elections 2015- exit poll results

Netanyahu and Hertzog.  Source: jpost.com

Netanyahu and Hertzog.
Source: jpost.com

The polls have closed a few minutes ago, and now the votes are being counted up and taken to the central election committee to be registered. The count will only be in by morning, and after that it will take 2-3 days to count the soldiers’ ballots and votes of people who voted overseas.

In the meantime, we have the exit polls, taken by channels 1, 2 and 10, which give a partial result.

First of all, more people voted this time than last election. The final figure is not in yet, but it is above 65%, which is relatively high.

These are the results according to the three exit polls:

Likud (Netanyahu)- 27 or 28

Labor (Hertzog and Livni)- 27

Joint Arab party (Ayman Oda)- 12 or 13

Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 11 or 12

Kulanu (Moshe Kahlon)- 9 or 10

Jewish Home (Naftali Bennet) 8 or 9

Shas (Arye Derri)- 7

United Torah Judaism (Yaakov Litzman)- 6 or 7

Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman)- 5

Meretz (Zehava Gal’on)- 5

Yachad (Eli Yishay)- 0

It’s important to stress that these are only exit polls. They do not represent all the voters, and there have been surprises in the past.

So who won the election? It may be weeks before we know for sure.

What happens next, after the final results are in, is that each party leader meets with the President and recommends a candidate to form the coalition. That candidate (which would either be Netanyahu or Hertzog, being the leaders of the two largest parties) will then have 28 days in which to negotiate with the other party leaders in order to form the coalition. They need a majority of at least 61 Knesset members to support them. They will negotiate over the main policy lines of the future government and about the ministerial positions that will be handed out to the high ranking members of each party.

If Netanyahu forms the coalition, it would most likely include Jewish Home, Yisrael Beiteinu, both Ultra Orthodox parties- Shas and United Torah Judaism, and finally Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu. Such a coalition would have approximately 63 seats, according to the exit polls.

If Hertzog forms the coalition, it would most likely include Meretz, Yesh Atid, both Ultra Orthodox parties and- Kulanu. Such a coalition would have approximately 67 seats.

The bottom line is that either way, the two Ultra Orthodox parties and Kulanu will be a part of the new coalition. The Ultra Orthodox parties naturally lean in the direction of Netanyahu, and the big question is which way will Kulanu lean? Moshe Kahlon is a former member of Netanyahu’s Likud, but he has been very careful throughout the campain to keep his mouth shut about who he prefers as Prime Minister. Moshe Kahlon is the Kingmaker.

If one candidate is unable to form a coalition within the allotted 28 days, he may get another 14. After that, the task falls to the second candidate. If neither are able to form a coalition, we may find ourselves with a second election, to brake the stalemate.

I will post updates in the comments, as the results come in.

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7 comments

  1. We might be renowned worldwide for our hi-tec, but Israel’s voting is still done manually- with little pieces of paper. It may have something to do with the fact that last election season, one of the parties attempted to move over to a computerized system for their primary election and the system collapsed, forcing the party to have a second day of voting. Anyway, the meaning is that when the polls close at 10 PM, each box of ballots is counted by the committee in charge of that specific polling booth. The box is then transported to the central election committee, where it is registered and the votes are added onto the total. This process of registering all the votes is what takes all night.

    The central election committee has a website in which the results are updated online:
    http://www.votes20.gov.il/nationalresults
    (Sorry, Hebrew only).

    The current count is as follows:
    5.88 million eligible voters. Somewhere over 65% of them voted.
    So far, 127,775 votes have been registered, which means only a small portion.

    25% of the votes so far have gone to Likud
    20% Labor
    8% Jewish Home
    8% Yesh Atid
    7% Kulanu
    6% Shas
    6% Lieberman
    5% Joint Arab list
    4.5% Meretz
    4% United Torah Judaism
    3.7% Yachad (still above the threshold)

    These results may still change drastically during the night.
    I will continue to update, until I decide it’s time for sleep…

  2. Update:
    With 633,688 of the votes counted so far, the results are:
    Likud- 25%
    Labor- 19.5%
    Yesh Atid- 8.7%
    Kulanu- 7.7%
    Joint Arab list- 6.8%
    Jewish Home- 6.4%
    Yisrael Beiteinu- 6.3%
    Shas- 5.9%
    United Torah Judaism- 4.8%
    Meretz- 4.15%
    Yachad- 3.1%- just under the threshold.

    The night is still young, and there are millions of votes to still be tallied…

  3. Update:
    With 1,190,353 votes counted so far, the results are:
    Likud- 24.8%
    Labor- 19%
    Yesh Atid- 8.7%
    Joint Arab list- 7.8%
    Kulanu- 7.7%
    Shas- 6.1%
    Yisrael Beiteinu- 6%
    Jewish Home- 6%
    UTJ- 5.3%
    Meretz- 4%
    Yachad- 3%- falling further under the threshold.

    But less than a third of the votes have been counted, so things may still change a lot over the next few hours.

  4. Update-
    1,827,707 votes have been counted:
    Likud- 24.7%
    Labor- 18.9%
    Yesh Atid- 8.8%
    Joint Arab list- 8.2%
    Kulanu- 7.7%
    Jewish Home- 6.1%
    Shas- 6.1%
    Yisrael Beiteinu- 5.9%
    UTJ- 5.2%
    Meretz- 3.9%
    Yachad- 3%- still under the threshold.

    Another 3 million votes or so to go…

  5. Update-
    2,586,842 votes counted:
    Likud- 24.4%
    Labor- 19.1%
    Yesh Atid- 8.8%
    Joint Arab list- 8.3%
    Kulanu- 7.6%
    Jewish Home- 6.4%
    Shas-6%
    Yisrael Beiteinu- 5.5%
    UTJ- 5.3%
    Meretz- 3.9%
    Yachad- 3.1%- still under the threshold.

    How does this translate into Knesset seats?
    Likud- 31
    Labor- 24
    Yesh Atid- 11
    Joint Arab list- 10
    Kulanu- 10
    Jewish Home- 8
    Shas- 7
    Yisrael Beiteinu- 7
    UTJ- 7
    Meretz- 5
    Yachad- 0

    Still another 2 million votes to go. There may be changes.

  6. Update-
    3,201,923 counted.
    Likud- 24.1%
    Labor- 19.3%
    Yesh Atid- 9%
    Joint Arab list- 8.7%
    Kulanu- 7.6%
    Jewish Home- 6.4%
    Shas- 5.9%
    Yisrael Beiteinu- 5.3%
    UTJ- 5%
    Meretz- 4%
    Yachad- 3%- under the threshold.

    In seats:
    Likud- 31, Labor- 25, Yesh atid- 11, Arab list- 11, Kulanu- 9, Jewish home- 8, Shas- 7, Yisrael beiteinu-7, UTJ- 6, Meretz- 5, Yachad- 0.

    Another point that’s interesting to note- 142,705 people cast their vote for parties that did not pass the threshold. Most of them (96K) voted for Yachad.

  7. With over 90% of the votes counted (almost 4 million), the results so far are:
    Likud 30
    Labor 24
    Joint Arab list- 14
    Yesh Atid- 11
    Kulanu- 9
    Jewish Home- 8
    Shas- 7
    Yisrael Beiteinu- 6
    UTJ- 6
    Meretz- 5
    Yachad does not pass the threshold.

    With Likud so far ahead of Labor, it is highly unlikely that Netanyahu will not be the first to have a chance at forming a coalition.
    Such a coalition would have to include Jewish Home, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, UTJ and Kulanu- altogether a majority of 66 Knesset seats.

    The numbers of seats may change slightly (1-2 seats up or down for each party) according to the final results.

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